SpaceX Files For Largest IPO In History: Here's What Prediction Markets Say About $1.75 Trillion Valuation
SpaceX Files For Largest IPO In History: Here's What Prediction Markets Say About $1.75 Trillion Valuation
Daragh ThomasFri, April 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM UTC
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Elon Musk’s SpaceX has confidentially filed its IPO paperwork with the SEC, putting the company on track for a potential July listing that could raise between $40 billion and $80 billion. That would dwarf Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion debut in 2019 as the largest IPO ever.
The filing will force SpaceX to open its books for the first time. The space side reportedly cleared around $8 billion in profit on $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue last year, nearly all of it Starlink.
Then there’s xAI, folded in through February’s $1.25 trillion merger and burning roughly $1 billion a month with all the original co-founders already out the door. The IPO roadshow is a pitch that Starlink’s margins can carry xAI’s ambitions long enough for orbital data centers to become real.
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Prediction Markets Are Already Moving
Polymarket’s closing market cap contract prices a 51% chance SpaceX finishes its first trading day valued between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.
Polymarket traders give a 28% chance that the IPO is complete by June 15, a 62% chance by June 30, and a 94% chance by the end of the year.
Even straightforward IPOs take months to clear the SEC, and packaging rockets, satellites, defense contracts and a cash-burning AI lab into a single S-1 is anything but straightforward.
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What Traders Are Watching
SpaceX would be the first of three potential mega-IPOs in 2026. OpenAI and Anthropic are both reportedly weighing offerings before year-end.
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Nasdaq recently announced rule changes that could allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq 100 within 15 days of listing, triggering billions in forced buying from index-tracking funds.
Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering, with E*Trade reportedly angling to lead the retail portion. Musk has suggested up to 30% of shares could go to retail investors.
For investors looking for exposure now, EchoStar Corp holds a SpaceX stake acquired through spectrum sales originally valued at $11.1 billion.
Tesla Inc remains the most liquid Musk-adjacent trade.
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