5 Companies Racing to Dethrone Tesla—And the One Already Winning
- - 5 Companies Racing to Dethrone Tesla—And the One Already Winning
William TempleJanuary 12, 2026 at 12:14 AM
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24/7 Wall St.Quick Read -
What stocks could be ‘The Next Tesla?’ NVIDIA generated $75B in Q3 revenue with 73% gross margins by selling AI infrastructure to all autonomous vehicle makers. Its recent launch of Alpamayo further entrenches the company as the leading alternative to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving stack.
Tesla deliveries fell 8.6% to 1.6M vehicles while BYD sold 2.26M EVs and became the world’s largest EV seller. Still, Tesla itself is a strong option to reshape transportation across the next decade thanks to their early efforts in end-to-end Full Self-Driving.
XPeng delivered eight times more vehicles than Rivian with 20% gross margin but trades at a lower market cap due to regulatory risk.
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Tesla's (Nasdaq: TSLA) stock is at a crossroads. Investors are now more interested in fields like building a fleet of robotaxis, progress in robotics, and future addressable energy markets relative to how many car deliveries the company achieves in a given quarter. Overall, while Tesla's 10-year chart is incredible, the company's stock has underperformed the broader market across the last five years.
We took a look at some alternatives to NVIDIA and ranked each company by their ability to reshape transportation.
5. Rivian: The Amazon-Backed Survivor
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down 18% year over year, yet the stock surged 49% over the past 12 months. The company's $23.8 billion market cap reflects investor belief in its Amazon delivery van partnership, optimism around its upcoming R2, and adventure-focused consumer trucks. Third quarter revenue hit $1.56 billion, up 78% year over year, though the company still burns cash with a negative 3.1% gross margin.
Reddit's retail crowd sees Rivian as the scrappy American underdog, with consistent bullish sentiment scores between 62 and 64. One WSB user captured the market's confusion: "Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles, down 18% year over year, while NIO delivered 326,028 vehicles, up 47% year over year. Despite this, Rivian's market cap is about $24B, compared to NIO's $11B." That valuation gap shows how much faith investors place in American EV makers versus Chinese competitors, even when the numbers don't support it.
While Rivian might have broad support amongst the retail crowd, its ability to reshape transportation is still far more limited than other names on our list.
4. QuantumScape: The Battery Breakthrough Bet
QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) has zero revenue, burns through cash every quarter, and gained 99% over the past year. The company's solid-state battery technology promises faster charging and longer range than current lithium-ion batteries. At a $6.92 billion market cap with no commercial product, this is pure speculation on a technological breakthrough hitting commercialization in the next five years.
Wall Street currently estimates revenue of $6 million in 2026, $57 million in 2027, $379 million in 2028, and $1.2 billion in 2029. Wall Street doesn't see the company reaching profitability until that 2029 timeframe.
24/7 Wall St. utilizes a proprietary sentiment score that tracks retail interest in stocks with 100 being extremely bullish and 0 being fully bearish. QuantumScape's sentiment score swung from 84-88 in late December to 20-28 by early January, reflecting the extreme volatility of betting on unproven technology. The stock trades at $11.04. If the technology works, early investors could see Tesla-like returns. If it doesn't, they'll watch their money evaporate.
3. XPeng: The Chinese Efficiency Play
XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) posted the second strongest one-year return in this group at 75%. The company generated $10.1 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, up 102% year over year in Q3, with a 20.1% gross margin that is slightly higher than Tesla's recnt quarter of 18% gross margins. At a $19.2 billion market cap, XPeng trades at a fraction of Rivian's valuation despite delivering nearly eight times more vehicles.
The catch is regulatory risk. Chinese EV makers face potential tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and questions about data security that keep many American investors away. But if you believe the future of EVs is affordable mass-market vehicles rather than premium trucks, XPeng's execution and profitability trajectory look compelling. Reddit maintains steady bullish sentiment between 62 and 68.
2. Tesla: The Struggling King
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) gained just 10% over the past year, underperforming every stock on this list. The company's 2025 deliveries fell 8.6% to 1.6 million vehicles, marking its biggest annual decline ever. Meanwhile, Chinese rival BYD sold 2.26 million EVs, officially dethroning Tesla as the world's largest EV seller.
As one Reddit user noted, "In 2011, Tesla CEO Elon Musk dismissed Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD as a competitor. But some 14 years later, BYD beat the American EV pioneer at its own game." Tesla's $1.50 trillion market cap reflects faith in future robotaxi and humanoid robot businesses rather than current vehicle sales. The stock trades at 311x earnings, pricing in a future that hasn't arrived yet. Musk promised robotaxi service would reach half the U.S. population by year-end 2025, but the rollout remains limited to Austin and San Francisco.
So, why is Tesla still number two on the list? NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang recently said "the ChatGPT moment for physical AI is here - when machines begin to understand, reason, and act in the real world." Massive advancements in vision language action models could not only change the trajectory of self-driving cars, but also robotics.
With massive breakthroughs happening in physical AI, Tesla can't be discounted as the company has made a massive push into robotics (Optimus) and while Robotaxi service is still limited to a small number of geographies, it can't be counted out. 2026 will likely be the most important year in Tesla's history, as the market either prices them as a leader in this massive fields, or could price in large multiple compression if there are fears Tesla's approach to either robotics or self-driving cars is behind competitors like NVIDIA, Waymo, and Chinese companies.
1. Nvidia: The Real Winner
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) gained 37% over the past year by selling the AI infrastructure everyone else needs. The company's $4.58 trillion market cap dwarfs every other name on this list combined. Third quarter revenue hit $57 billion, up 63% year over year, with 73% gross margins.
CEO Jensen Huang just announced plans to power a robotaxi service with a partner by 2027, directly challenging Tesla's core future business. The company's new Vera Rubin AI platform promises 4x fewer GPUs needed for training versus previous generation Blackwell systems, with 10x lower inference token costs. As Huang explained on the recent launch, "Rubin arrives at exactly the right moment, as AI computing demand for both training and inference is going through the roof."
And the company's launch of its Alpamayo self-driving suite entrenches NVIDIA's status as an alternative to Tesla's Robotaxi network. While Telsa has a long lead with its FSD stack, NVIDIA's Alpamayo provides a viable alternative across the automotive industry. It's effectively what 'Android' was for smartphones in the self-driving race.
Reddit's retail crowd remains bullish with sentiment scores between 61 and 71, far more stable than the wild swings seen in pure EV plays. One user's observation captures why Nvidia wins: "Still, neither AMD nor its own customers are likely to unseat Nvidia from its AI throne anytime soon. And if it's able to continue its yearly release schedule, it will be even more difficult for them to catch up."
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